Research Report on Second Samuel 24, David’s Evil Census

In Second Samuel chapter 24 the Lord’s anger against Israel and Judah causes the Lord to incite David against Israel and Judah by causing David to conduct a census. This brought the country under wrath as the king was not to do this without collecting a tax. This chapter contains a set of numbers that predict a series of events in the future history of the world. We look at the math here.

Background

This particular set is interesting because all of the math points at known world history and various invasions of countries down through the age.

The starting point for all measurements here is the death of David himself. This happened essentially at the new year break and so the 15th day of the first month of the year is used.

The next date, the "Prophetic Epoch" is derived from when the Census completes, 9 months and 20 days later. This intervals grammar is extremely rare. It is counting off time in history until the counts arrive to David.

These days, 9 * 30 + 20 = 290, are mapped out through the standard ratio that goes from days of the prophet to years of the nation. In this case each calendar day represents 1 year in the history of the nation from the starting epoch for this whole prophetic story.

David’s Evil Census, Part I: Prophetic Epoch
Epoch is 99801/1/15, ~15 days before known end of David’s Life
Tue9980-01-15 AA9 Oct -1008 NS1 Dec 338 BAUC3640335 AAN
480-01-15 FE19 Oct -1008 OS1 Dec 1091 BC1353178 JDN
Prophetic Epoch: 9 months and 20 days later (9*30) + 20 = 290 days[1]
The date when counts are reported to David.
At 1 day/yr since David is a Prophet.
Fri10270-01-15 AA22 May -718 NS20 Nov 11 AUC3746115 AAN
770-01-15 FE30 May -718 OS20 Nov 743 BC1458958 JDN

When we run 290 years forward from this date we end up at 10270/1/15. This is the decision point were the angel gives David some choices. In this case we have a secondary starting epoch, a Prophetic Epoch, the point from which each choice will be measured.

Choice 3: 3 days of plague

3 Days Of Plague
Prophetic Epoch, counts delivered to David
Fri10270-01-15 AA22 May -718 NS20 Nov 11 AUC3746115 AAN
770-01-15 FE30 May -718 OS20 Nov 743 BC1458958 JDN
3 days of plague[2]
At 1 day/yr since the country is the target
Tue10273-01-15 AA5 Jun -715 NS5 Six 15 AUC3747225 AAN
773-01-15 FE13 Jun -715 OS5 Six 739 BC1460068 JDN
Forward 50 additional years at 1 year/shekel[3]
Sun10323-01-15 AA15 May -665 NS19 Sep 70 AUC3765465 AAN
823-01-15 FE22 May -665 OS19 Sep 684 BC1478308 JDN
Forward 70000 deaths later at 1 death/day[4]
The angel was stopped from destroying Jerusalem[5]
Sun10514-12-25 AA9 Jan -473 NS24 Nov 267 AUC3835465 AAN
1014-12-25 FE14 Jan -474 OS24 Nov 487 BC1548308 JDN

This choice is the shortest of the choices and is the one chosen by David when this happened during his reign. As prophecy this goes another 3 years forward, bringing the date to 10273/1/15 AA This date is the start of the 3 years that the capital of the northern kingdom, the kingdom of Israel, was sacked by the Assyrians.[6]

Curiously, this date is the last date in the Biblical chronology for the northern kingdom, but in a passage in Isaiah where this is covered a longer period is given before it is totally overrun. This passage gives 65 years[7] before they are overrun so much that they cannot be a people. In David’s case this is seen by the additional 50 years granted by the price he pays for the threshing floor when he stops the plague on his people.[8] When we add these 50 years onto the predicted destruction of Samaria we get 10323/1/15 as the indicated date, consistent with Isaiah’s 65 years.

This choice was prophetic for the destruction of the Northern Kingdom, capital at Samaria.

Choice 2: 3 months of invasion

3 Days Of Plague
Prophetic Epoch, counts delivered to David
Fri10270-01-15 AA22 May -718 NS20 Nov 11 AUC3746115 AAN
770-01-15 FE30 May -718 OS20 Nov 743 BC1458958 JDN
Forward 3 months, as days: 90 days, for nation at 1/year so 90 years[9]
Thu10360-01-15 AA30 Apr -628 NS29 Sep 108 AUC3778965 AAN
860-01-15 FE7 May -628 OS29 Sep 646 BC1491808 JDN
Forward 50 shekels at 1 shekel/year for nation[10]
Tue10410-01-15 AA9 Apr -578 NS17 Feb 159 AUC3797205 AAN
910-01-15 FE15 Apr -578 OS17 Feb 595 BC1510048 JDN

This choice is longer, at one day per year the 3 months implied here are 90 years. When we use the secondary epoch discussed above we get (10270 + 90 =) 10360/1/15 as the indicated date. Here too we must factor in the 50 years that the price of the threshing floor implies to this story or (10270 + 90 + 50 = ) 10410/1/15. Of course it was in 10409 that Jerusalem was overrun and burned by the Babylonians.

This choice is prophetic for the destruction of the southern kingdom, capital at Jerusalem.

Choice 1: 3 years of famine

3 Days Of Plague
Prophetic Epoch, counts delivered to David
Fri10270-01-15 AA22 May -718 NS20 Nov 11 AUC3746115 AAN
770-01-15 FE30 May -718 OS20 Nov 743 BC1458958 JDN
Forward 3 years, as days: 1080 days, for nation at 1/year so 1080 years[11]
Sun11350-01-15 AA5 Feb 361 NS4 Feb 1114 AUC4140105 AAN
1850-01-15 FE4 Feb 360 OS4 Feb 361 AD1852948 JDN
Forward 50 shekels at 1 shekel/year for nation[12]
Fri11400-01-15 AA14 Jan 411 NS13 Jan 1164 AUC4158345 AAN
1900-01-15 FE13 Jan 410 OS13 Jan 411 AD1871188 JDN

This was the first choice given by the angel to David. It was the longest of the choices involving three years of famine on his people. This choice has the longest fulfillment. Using a year for each day in 3 years yields (360 * 3 = 1080 years). This too must have the 50 year implied by the 50 shekels paid for the threshing floor so 1130 years total are implied by this choice. When we use the secondary epoch discussed above the implied final year for this prophecy is 11400/1/15 a.a.

When we look this up on the Roman calendar we see that it it "fulfilled" 13 January 411 AD Roman.

When we survey world history we see that just like the sacking of Jerusalem in the year before the indicated date, that Alaric the Goth sacked Rome in 410 AD Roman. This sacking was followed by a second sacking of Rome in 455 AD, and essentially the end of the Western Roman empire by 476 AD when the Germans placed a mercenary on the Roman throne.

This choice indicates the sacking of Rome by Alaric the Goth in 410 AD.

The Reported Census Counts Themselves

This is not the only way this passage foretells sackings. The census counts themselves reported to David also show the years of future destruction of peoples related to David.

The census counts separate the two parts of David’s kingdom, the northern Kingdom, Israel, had 800,000 fighting men, the southern kingdom had 500,000 men.

Since these two counts are separate we must use a different starting epoch to measured the implied days. The natural epoch for this purpose is 10020/1/15, the first year after the priests stop supporting Rehoboam and David’s united kingdom is now two. This is consistent with the structure of the two counts reported to David, and why we pick this epoch.

Judah Census Counts As Time

The following report shows the starting epoch, and then the date 500,000 days later:

David’s Evil Census, Part II: Judah’s Counts
Epoch is 11020/1/15: First year after Priests stop supporting Rehoboam
Mon10020-01-15 AA10 Sep -968 NS20 Nov 290 BAUC3654915 AAN
520-01-15 FE19 Sep -968 OS20 Nov 1043 BC1367758 JDN
Forward 500,000 Judahites, at 1/day[13]
Fri11390-09-05 AA24 Aug 401 NS23 Aug 1154 AUC4154915 AAN
1890-09-05 FE23 Aug 401 OS23 Aug 401 AD1867758 JDN

500,000 days after the epoch yields 11390/9/5 AA or the 23 of August 401 AD. This is when the Visigoths invaded Italy, an invasion related to the other invasion of Rome by Alaric.

This is prophetic for the sacking of Rome.

Israel Census Counts As Time

David’s Evil Census, Part III: Israel’s Counts
Epoch is 11020/1/15: First year after Priests stop supporting Rehoboam
Mon10020-01-15 AA10 Sep -968 NS20 Nov 290 BAUC3654915 AAN
520-01-15 FE19 Sep -968 OS20 Nov 1043 BC1367758 JDN
Forward 800,000 Israelites, at 1/day[14]
Sat12213-01-05 AA7 Jan 1223 NS31 Dec 1975 AUC4454915 AAN
2713-01-05 FE31 Dec 1222 OS31 Dec 1222 AD2167758 JDN

This is actually reversed from what we might expect, as this is a Judah count and Judah will move into the eastern part of the old Roman empire. If the split in the kingdom’s had not happened after Solomon’s death they would have been strong enough to ward this off. This is a date involving the future history of the northern kingdom, even though it is a southern kingdom census count.

Similarly, the northern kingdoms 800,000 fighting men, at one per day from our starting epoch yields the date December 31, 1222 AD. This a date close to the Mongol invasion of Russia, a country derived from the southern kingdom. If they had not split they would have been strong enough to ward off this invasion. As it was they lost and were sacked by the Mongols.

This is prophetic for the sacking of Russia.

Comments

The final 2 census count dates are essentially backwards. Israel’s date deals with a sacking of Russia, and Judah’s date deals with a sacking of Rome.

This actually make sense in the sense that David’s throne itself represented a broken covenant. The people had wanted a king, and so was split into 2 at the end of Solomon’s reign. They became mortal enemies, and will remain so until near the time of Jesus’ return.

Neither side can stand without the other’s help.



1. S. Samuel 24:8
2. S. Samuel 24:13
3. S. Samuel 24:24
4. S. Samuel 24:15
5. S. Samuel 24:16
6. S. Kings 18:10
7. Isaiah 7:8
8. S. Samuel 24:24
9. S. Samuel 24:13
10. S. Samuel 24:24
11. S. Samuel 24:13
12. S. Samuel 24:24
13. S. Samuel 24:9
14. S. Samuel 24:9